Rosebud, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

059
FXUS63 KUNR 092042
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
242 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated general thunderstorms exit the region this
  evening.

- Dry and warming trend over the weekend will lead to elevated to
  near critical fire weather conditions in some areas.

- Pattern changes early next week, leading to cooler temperatures
  and increasing precipitation chances.


&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025



Current upper air models show northwest flow aloft as upper ridge
builds over the western CONUS today. Surface chart depicts low
pressure over the ND/MB border with a boundary stretching into
eastern SD. A second boundary currently runs from central WY up
into southwestern and central SD this afternoon. Radar shows
popcorn showers (or virga) moving southeast covering much of the
FA, with a couple isolated storms towards south central SD.
Temperatures sit in the 50s to mid 60s across the area with gusty
northwest winds. Light precipitation is expected to exit the
region early this evening.

Upper ridge slides over the Rockies Thursday, and eventually over
the northern/central plains the first half of the weekend. This
will lead to warming temperatures and dry conditions, with highs
reaching into the 70s and perhaps low 80s for some areas Friday
and Saturday. Breezy northwest winds develop Thursday morning,
mainly over the western SD plains, then diminish early afternoon
into the evening as surface high pressure slides into the FA.
South to southeasterly surface will then usher in warmer air for
the weekend. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated to
near critical fire weather through Saturday.

Upper ridge exits the region and later Saturday, with a shortwave
trough and associated cold front moving in Saturday night into
Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures and increased precipitation
chances. Mostly rain can be expected, however the higher elevation
areas could see light snow or a rain/snow mix as temperatures cool
off. Currently models keep the bulk of the moisture north of our
FA. LREF probability for 0.1" 24hr QPF to 20 percent or less
across our area. The better chances for accumulating precipitation
will be from northeast WY to the northern Black Hills and
northwest SD. Seasonable temperatures are expected
the first half of the half of the week before shortwave ridge
moves over the northern plains on Wednesday, warming temperatures
up some.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1128 AM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Isolated showers have begun to re-develop across the Black Hills
and portions of NE WY. Local MVFR conditions may briefly occur
with any stronger cores. Confidence is low that any impacts will
occur at KRAP or KGCC this afternoon so have kept shower/thunder
mention out of TAF. Northwest winds will gust around 45kts over
northwestern SD 17z today to 01z this evening. Otherwise, expected
VFR conditions through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 202 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions can be expected in some areas
from today through Saturday. Minimum RH`s are expected to drop
into the low 20s and upper teens both Thursday and Friday
afternoon. Breezy conditions on Thursday and Friday will lead to
elevated and possibly near critical conditions in a few areas of
the western SD plains.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-
     073-078.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...SE
FIRE WEATHER...Dye